We can roughly estimate the mentality of paper mills and paper mills:
1. Supported by just-needed support, since it is the traditional off-season, that is, the production capacity in the market must be larger than the demand. This hard state has nothing to do with the price. It will not be changed because the price is high, that is, even if the price is high, There will be no more orders for price reductions, but the continuous production of the factories will also result in the emergence of just-in-time orders, that is, they will not buy because the price is high, nor will they buy more because the price is low, that is, this part of the order holds the price in the chassis. Naturally, there is no impulse to lower prices, selling at low prices and selling at high prices to maintain the same level of profitability.
2. With capital as the mainstay, the game of the war of attrition is based on their respective food and grass as the pillar of battle. That is, the same market, price, and demand, and whoever has the strength of funds have the capital to fight warfare. Facing the relatively dispersed and weaker downstream of the paperboard factory and carton factory, the paper mills clearly occupy the top. The price is here, it does not fall, you can insist on 1,2,3 days do not buy, do not insist on a week to buy, follow-up it? Do not buy means to reduce inventory or stop operating, but your fixed costs will not happen because of reduction or stop operating, this time depends on strength, how long can you persist? If you insist on a maximum of one month and a half months, in this process, the upstream and downstream parties are all losers, but the paper mill and carton factory are the biggest losers. After the insistence period, they still have to resume buying. Sorry, the paper mill will pull the price higher! why? Because your concentrated purchase will lead to a surge in market demand and warehouses are quickly out of the market, continued price increases will become a necessity.
3, high prices are the means and objectives in the case of high prices, coupled with market demand itself is insufficient, resulting in paper mills, second-tier plant under-employment, just downstream manufacturers wait and see and even dream of price collapse, when in fact, as early as In 2017, it began to lay out the entire industry chain of paper mills and group-type second-tier plants, accelerating the harvesting of carton customers, and using capital advantages to conduct extensive mergers, acquisitions, and joint ventures with small second-tier plants and large third-tier plants throughout the country. You are waiting to see jokes, they are trying to attack your backyard.
4. High-level consolidation aggravated the speed of reshuffle In fact, the price volatility and increase since September 2016, coupled with the supply-side reform, and environmental protection factors, all these are the result of the development of the country's large industry, from many other industries. The same as the price fluctuations, we can see that the rise in paper prices is not the case in a single industry but in most industries. From the rapid layout of paper mills and large group packaging companies, it is clear that this industry's consolidation ideas are stable. Under the circumstances of market conditions and stable profits, it is difficult and effective to consolidate, and by using the high price of the market, companies with low production capacity, poor efficiency, and environmental protection can quickly adjust to adopt the market's natural laws. Whether the industry is environmentally friendly, the output per unit of floor space, or the energy consumption of the average output value are the three major factors for assessing the company in the future. Therefore, large companies such as paper mills are unaware of the fact that they are naturally quick, accurate, and embarrassed.
Information Processing: Carton Street
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