The paper industry was the star of last year, but this year's national price cuts have depressed investor sentiment and the sector has continued to adjust. However, the recent price of paper has gradually bottomed out, and the sector has gradually stabilized. Among them, Hong Kong stocks Dragon Paper has increased by more than 20% from the bottom. Zhongheng Securities Sun Hengchi believes that with the coming of the peak season, the waste paper in the market is still bullish. In the past five years, except for the third quarter of 2015, the papermaking sector has excess returns.
First, the paper industry gradually opened in the third quarter of the peak season
Zhongtai Securities believes that the paper industry will continue to be optimistic in the third quarter for three reasons:
1) The overall supply and demand pattern of the industry has not changed much. There is no new capacity for cultural paper. The main new capacity of packaging paper is that Sun Paper's 800,000 tons of cardboard paper is scheduled to be put into operation in August, but it may be trial production in the early stage. Mainly, the volume should not be large in the third quarter.
2) Cost end: 1 Waste paper system, it is expected that with the advent of the peak season, the scarcity of waste paper resources will be further highlighted. At the same time, the new capacity of Sun Paper will also increase the market's expectations of tight sources of raw materials. The possibility of relaxing the superimposed waste import policy is not great, and the waste paper in the third quarter is generally bullish. 2 Wood pulp, the European market price of wood pulp is still in the upward stage, the global supply and demand pattern is still tight, so the price of pulp in the third quarter is likely to fluctuate.
3) Inventory: From the data of historical inventory changes of various paper types, it can be seen that in the third quarter, the market has been in a downward range. The decline in inventory levels will reduce the willingness of companies to accelerate the return of funds through price cuts, and also support the rebound in paper prices.
Second, the direct profit attribute of waste paper will be more prominent
Based on the judgment of the higher price of waste paper in the third and fourth quarters, the core point of the papermaking enterprise's profitability in 2018 is the source of raw materials and cost advantage, and the continuous upward trend of the national waste price will lead to the widening of the waste price difference between the country and waste. The direct profit attribute of paper quotas will be more prominent.
Leading companies with external waste quotas are expected to enjoy policy dividends. This year, the national waste price difference has been widened to nearly 1,400 yuan / ton. According to estimates, due to the widening of the waste price difference between the country and the country this year, the performance of the three companies, namely, Xiaolong, Liwen and Shanying, increased by 29.8, 13 and 1.31 billion respectively.
Third, the papermaking sector performed well in the third quarter, with significant excess returns.
A retrospective analysis of the A-share market in the past five years found that, except for 2015, the papermaking sector's excess returns to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 in the third quarter were in the upside range.
Combined with the historical market performance, the papermaking sector is at a low level in the current off-season, especially after experiencing a sharp decline in the market. At present, Sun Paper, Shanying Paper and Nine Dragons Paper (the stock price corresponds to 9.1X, 5.8X and 5.8X for 18 years, and the layout opportunity has been opened.
4. On August 5, Guangdong will increase its forecast. The market may be expected to rise in the next week.
â—August 5th Hebei Qinhuangdao Jinmaoyuan waste paper price adjustment information:
From August 5th, Qinhuangdao Jinmaoyuan Paper Waste Paper dropped 20, after adjustment: a grade 2720, grade B 2620, grade C 2540.
â— August 5th Jiangsu Yancheng Longheng waste paper price adjustment information:
On the 5th, the price of Longheng waste paper was adjusted to: yellow board a grade 2790, grade B 2690, box board unit 2490; newspaper 98% package 2780, 90% report 2690, 80% report 2590, bulk goods less 20, book cut edge paper 2450, small flowers package 2420.
â—August 5th Guangdong Jiangmenqiao Yu waste paper price adjustment information:
From the 5th, Jiangmenqiao Yu waste paper rose 100: pure industrial paper edge 2870, pure industrial carton 2850, premium paper 2800 (yellow paper 95/05), pit card 2450 (pit card gray card ratio 90/10), Mixed goods 2350 (yellow paper flower paper ratio exceeds 60%, miscellaneous paper ratio is less than 40%), and the remaining undetermined papers are not accepted.
â—August 5th Shandong Depak waste paper price adjustment information:
From August 5th, Shandong Depike Paper Green Board lowered 50, and executed: Qingban 2900, supermarket 2800.
â—August 5th Guangdong Dongguan Jianhui waste paper price adjustment information:
From August 5th, Dongguan Jianhui implemented prices: a grade 2900, grade B 2770, grade 1 office paper 2750, mixed white paper 2550.
â—August 5th Guangdong Zhongshan Hongxing, Yongfa waste paper price adjustment information:
From August 5th, Zhongshan Hongxing and Zhongshan Yongfa waste paper prices were raised 50, after the adjustment of Zhongshan Hongxing: premium 2560, pure paper 2500, beer box 2390, pure pit card / pure color box 2160; Zhongshan Yongfa: special 2590, pure paper 2530, beer box 2420, pure pit card / pure color box 2160.
â—August 5th Dongguan Jianhua Paper Price Adjustment Information:
From August 5th, the price of waste paper in Jianhua Paper Industry of Dongguan City was implemented: 2150 yuan/ton for the base paper and 2050 yuan/ton for the pure paper tube. Hope that all customers must strictly control the quality, no fraud, no doping.
â— August 5th Guangdong Foshan Jinsheng waste paper price adjustment information;
From August 5th, Foshan Jinsheng waste paper rose 60, after adjustment: Level 2830, Level 2780, Level 3 suspended. All suppliers are required to strictly control the quality standards to prevent water pollution.
â—August 5th Jiangsu Jianping waste paper price adjustment information:
From August 5th, Xuzhou Jianping waste paper C grade was raised 50: a grade 95% to 2750, grade B 90% to 2690, grade C 80% to 2630, grade D yellow board 50% to 2490. E-class 2100, ABC level with photo or video Jiaozhou Peninsula New-East Xinjiang road to fill 80 per ton, 50 in the field, 30 in the mainland.
â—August 5th Shandong Plains Huisheng waste paper price adjustment information:
From August 5th, Shandong Dezhou Plain Huisheng Paper Waste Paper was lowered by 50, and a grade 2900 and B grade 2780 were implemented.
â—August 5th Guangdong Dongguan Xufeng waste paper price adjustment information:
From the morning of August 5th, Dongguan Xufeng waste paper rose 50: special grade 2460, first grade paper 2440, second grade 2340, three-level stop, factory cardboard 2280, control moisture impurities.
â—August 5th Dongguan Yinzhou waste paper price adjustment information:
On August 5th, Dongguan Yinzhou waste paper collection price increased by 50: first grade paper 2790, secondary paper 2710, three-level paper 2630.
â—August 5th Dongguan Jinzhou waste paper price adjustment information:
From August 5th, Dongguan Jinzhou waste paper collection price increased by 50: first grade paper 2850, second grade paper 2750, three-level paper 2650.
â—August 5th Guangdong Dongguan Jianhang waste paper price adjustment information:
From the 5th of the month, Dongguan Jianhang Paper Waste Paper rose 50: the highest paper edge was 2880 yuan, the paper skin was 2860 yuan, the good bulk cargo was 2720 yuan, and the pit card was 2720 yuan. More impurities are not collected.
â— August 5th Shandong Derong paper waste paper price adjustment information;
From August 5th, Shandong Derong Paper Waste Paper Price Execution: Grade A 2800 (yellow board contains more than 90%), Grade B 2700 yuan (yellow board contains more than 80%), Grade C: 2600 yuan (yellow board contains 70%) % or more), hereby notify.
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