Economic daily
"Looking at the world, we are faced with a big change that has not happened in a hundred years." In the next 15 years, it is the transition period of China's comparative advantage. It is a key period for China's rise as an emerging power and a major adjustment period for the international structure. Under the combined effect of many factors, the international economic structure will undergo major changes. In general, the international economic landscape will show ten major trends in the next 15 years. In this regard, we must clearly understand the situation, grasp the direction, give play to advantages, make up for shortcomings, continuously enhance international competitiveness, and achieve profit and avoid disadvantages under the new international economic structure.
Trend 1: The global economy will be in a period of low growth
In the next 15 years, some developing countries will continue the process of urbanization. A new round of technological revolution and urbanization will remain the potential for future growth of some developing countries. By 2035, the global urbanization rate will reach 61.7%. It will be an important driving force for future global economic growth.
What needs to be seen is that global economic growth is facing constraints such as slower population growth, accelerated aging and increasingly strict environmental protection. The overall growth rate of the global economy may not return to the historical average. First, the slowdown in population growth and the aging of the population will become an important factor dragging economic growth in developed countries and some developing countries. According to forecasts, the global population will increase from 7.35 billion in 2015 to 8.89 billion in 2035 and 9.77 billion in 2050. The proportion of the global elderly population (over 65 years old) will rise from 8.3% in 2015 to 13.0% and 2050 in 2035. 15.8% of the year. Second, in the field of energy resource utilization, the emergence of new technologies will change the pattern of global energy supply and industrial division of labor. Third, although globalization will continue to develop in the long run, globalization will face many challenges in the near future.
Considering the changes in major fundamental factors such as technology, urbanization, population, and environment, we believe that the global economic growth rate will show a trend decline, and it may maintain a low growth rate for a long time in the future. From 2020 to 2035, the average global economic growth rate is around 2.6%. The growth rate of developed economies will likely slow down further. The overall growth rate is about 1.7%, which is lower than the average growth rate of the past 50 years. The growth rate of developing countries has declined, and the average annual growth rate will reach 4.9%. .
Trend 2: The multi-polarization of the global economic structure will be more obvious
The multi-polarization trend of the global economic structure in the next 15 years is mainly reflected in:
The rise of emerging economies and the importance of developing countries in the global economy are even more important. Some Asian and African countries are likely to be the leaders in global economic growth. By 2035, developing countries will have more GDP than developed economies, and their share of the global economy and investment is close to 60%. The focus of global economic growth will shift from Europe and the United States to Asia and spill over to other developing countries and regions. The United States, Japan and the EU will remain the world's major economic powers, and the strength of emerging economies will continue to rise.
The United States will maintain its status as a global superpower. In the short term, US consumer demand is expected to be further released and become a key factor supporting economic growth. The US population will maintain a low growth rate. By 2035, the elderly population will surpass the minority population for the first time. By 2050, the total population will be close to 400 million. According to the Fed's forecast, the long-term GDP growth rate of the United States is about 2%. The research team predicts that China's economic status will be more important in the future, and the United States will continue to maintain its status as a global superpower.
In the next 15 years, Europe and Japan will remain important global economies, but their status will decline. According to the research team, by 2035, the world's seven largest economies may have only one European country (Germany), and Europe as a whole still occupies an important position in the global economy. The future growth rate of the Japanese economy will remain low for a long time, and the Japanese economic ranking is expected to be around fifth in 2035.
Trend 3: The new technological revolution will reshape the industrial landscape
The industrial revolution triggered by a new round of technological revolution represented by information technology and digital technology will present the characteristics of intelligent production mode, platform of industrial organization, and openness of technological innovation. It will also bring comprehensive and profound social division of labor. influences.
It is expected that in the next 15 years, information technology and the development of emerging digital economy will provide opportunities for the recovery of the late-developing economies. The rise of the digital economy will accelerate the spread of knowledge to developing countries, help localize production, and boost the industrialization process in developing countries. At the same time, information technology is changing the characteristics of the industry, and some labor-intensive industries will be transformed into capital- and technology-intensive industries, which will not only change the global layout of capital and technology-intensive industries, but also accelerate the transformation of the post-development economy. development of. The combination of information technology and the advantages of the post-development economy resources can strengthen the advantages of the late-developing economy.
Trend 4: International trade will be digital, etc.
In the future, the deepening of economic globalization and the deepening of international division of labor will continue to be an important driving force for the continued development of international trade. The future development of global trade will present new trends and characteristics. Mainly manifested in: the form of international trade has changed, and the proportion of digital product trade, service trade, and intra-industry trade will increase significantly. The trade pattern has changed. Under the promotion of information technology, cross-border e-commerce will develop rapidly, and a new international trade mode will lead to a new regulatory model. The global trade pattern will change, and the regionalization of the international division of labor value chain will be further enhanced; emerging economies will rise in global trade. The global trade imbalance will peak in around 2030 and then gradually improve. International trade rules place more emphasis on high standards and high levels of facilitation and liberalization.
Trend 5: New trends in cross-border investment rulemaking
Formulating cross-border investment rules will be an important part of the improvement of the global economic governance system in the next 20 years. Cross-border investment rules are constantly improving. The level of liberalization and facilitation will continue to increase. The amount of global cross-border investment will rise in volatility. Among cross-border investment, the proportion of service industry increased, the proportion of manufacturing industry declined; the proportion of tangible assets decreased, and the proportion of intangible assets increased. Multinational companies will continue to be the main force in global cross-border investment and value chain arrangements. The number of multinational companies in emerging economies will continue to rise. The status of developing economies in cross-border investment is rising.
Trend 6: Accelerating global population ageing
Global population development is undergoing profound adjustments. Population growth has generally slowed down, global fertility levels have generally declined, and the declines in developing countries have become more pronounced. Some countries have long been at low fertility levels. Significant improvement in health status and increased life expectancy. In terms of population distribution, the global population growth in the next 20 years will mainly come from developing countries; the fertility rate will still face a downward trend; the population is aging, the developed countries are entering a deep aging stage, and the developing countries are also showing an aging trend. . The global average expectation of years of education continues to rise, but the rate of growth has declined significantly in recent years, and the pace of progress in low-income countries is relatively slow.
It should also be noted that by 2035, the global per capita national income is expected to reach the range of $16,000 to $18,000. The weakening of technological advantages and the aging of the population in developed countries will continue. The emerging countries represented by China will continue to maintain the comparative advantages of accelerated technological progress and abundant labor resources. The trend of narrowing the income gap between high-income countries and low- and middle-income countries will continue. . With the increase in per capita income, the middle-income group will expand. In terms of regions, half of the current middle class is concentrated in developed economies in Europe and the United States, and by 2030 about two-thirds will be concentrated in Asian countries and regions, with an estimated 3.2 billion people.
Trend 7: Green development becomes an important orientation
In recent years, carbon productivity, energy productivity, and raw material productivity have increased in major developed countries around the world. At the same time, society has a broad base for achieving green development and tackling climate change. However, developing countries still face serious challenges in how to achieve a coordinated balance in the development of the economy and the protection of the environment.
Looking forward to 2035, to achieve sustainable development goals and promote world economic development, green development to control pollution and achieve low-carbon transformation is becoming the mainstream of economic development in various countries. Green development will have an important impact on the international economic structure. It will form a mechanism for technological innovation, industrial development, and pollution reduction, promote green innovation and green industry development, and form new economic growth points.
Trend 8: The global energy structure and structure will change profoundly
The energy supply and demand structure is undergoing profound changes. One is clean. A major breakthrough in unconventional oil and gas exploration technology has greatly increased the supply capacity of oil and gas resources. It is expected that global natural gas will grow by about 45% by 2040. The second is low carbonization. Renewable energy costs have fallen sharply and will be online at a lower price than conventional fossil energy by 2020. The third is electrification. Electricity plays a more prominent role in the future global energy system. The fourth is digital. The wide application of digital technology in energy supply and demand will increase energy supply capacity and reduce costs, and will also improve energy efficiency and cost. Distributed energy will become a new energy supply.
The global energy supply and demand pattern will undergo profound changes. From the perspective of global energy demand, according to international organizations, global energy demand is expected to grow by about 30% by 2035. Developing countries, especially the “Belt and Road†region, will become the center of global energy demand growth in the future. Asia has become the main oil and gas industry in the world. Imported land. From the perspective of the global energy supply pattern, in addition to traditional energy exporting countries such as OPEC and Russia, the United States will become a new supplier of global energy.
Trend 9: Overall improvement in global food security
The enormous potential of global agricultural resources is conducive to ensuring global food security. According to the calculation of relevant institutions, there is still a very significant potential of cultivated land in the global land resources. The actual cultivated land cultivated in the world can reach 3.5 billion hectares, and 1.467 billion hectares of potential cultivated land has not been effectively utilized. If we consider the continuous improvement of production technology and crop adaptability, there are 2.6 billion hectares of potential agricultural land in the world that have not been effectively exploited.
In general, the overall situation of global food security will improve in 2035. Driven by population growth and economic growth, global food consumption will continue to grow in the future. At the same time, the pattern of grain supply and demand has been adjusted, and international trade in food has continued to grow. However, the food security situation in some regions is still grim, and the imbalance between regions is more prominent.
Trend 10: International financial centers will diversify
International currency diversification. By 2035, the United States remains the country with the most comprehensive global influence, and the US dollar will remain at the core of the international monetary system. With the deepening of economic globalization, more and more economies have entered the international monetary system, the coverage of the international monetary system has also greatly expanded, and international currencies have gradually diversified. The application scope of the super-sovereign reserve currency will become more extensive and more supported by the international community. The financial security mechanism in the international monetary system has been strengthened from different sources.
The international financial center is diversified. The financial center cities of emerging market countries represented by Shanghai are slowly rising in the global financial system and compete directly with cities in developed countries with similar rankings. But London and New York will remain the major financial center cities in the world. The trend of financial centers by region has gradually increased.
This article is posted on this website for the purpose of transmitting more information and does not imply endorsement of its views or confirmation of its description.
Article source address: http://
Root Canal Measuring Table,Block Root Canal Measuring Table,Dental Root Canal Measuring Table,Endodontic Root Canal Measuring Table
Henan Hanchen Medical Technology Co., LTD , https://www.tchanchen.com