Domestic finished paper price fluctuations are limited to imported finished paper prices, when corrugated paper is 5,000 yuan/ton, and linerboard is 5,600 yuan/ton or less, the domestic market can conduct smooth price transmission. The decrease in waste paper imports by about 10% can still be compensated by increasing the recycling rate. If the import volume drops by 20%, it will basically be close to the recycling limit of waste paper for each paper type, which will bring about extreme tension in raw materials. Large enterprises have obvious advantages in waste paper import quotas and operating efficiency. The gross profit per ton of paper of large enterprises with waste paper import quotas is about 500 yuan/t higher than that of small firms without waste paper import quotas.
(I) The raw materials of conductive materials rose smoothly before the substitution of imported finished paper
Traditionally, boxboard corrugated paper is defined as non-tradable due to its large size and its tendency to be subject to moisture degradation. In the second half of 2017, with the tightening of environmental protection standards and rising domestic waste prices, domestic finished paper prices have risen and the number of imported finished paper products has risen rapidly. In 2015 and 2016, the corrugated paper imports were 80,000 tons and 85,000 tons, respectively. In 2017, the number of corrugated papers surged to 649,000 tons. In 2015 and 2016, the imports of containerboard were 570,000 tons and 654,000 tons, respectively. A quantity rose to 896,000 tons. Imported finished paper supplements domestic supply and demand, and the import price has also become a regulatory mechanism for domestic paper product prices.
For corrugated paper, the time of significant increase in import volume was 17 months from January to March and from August to November. The corresponding domestic and international spreads were between 1200-2,000 yuan/ton, and the median value was around 1,500 yuan/ton. Considerable transportation was considered. After the cost, when the domestic and international price difference is 1,500 yuan/ton, the corrugated paper import volume has increased significantly; the current average import price is 3,500 yuan/ton, so when the domestic corrugated paper price rises to 5,000 yuan/ton, the import volume will be heavy.
In the case of linerboard, the period of significant increase in import volume was 2-4 months in October and October-November 17th. The corresponding spreads at home and abroad were between 800-2300 yuan/ton, and the median value was also around 1,500 yuan/ton. After shipping and other costs, when the domestic and international price difference is 1,500 yuan/ton, the import volume of containerboard paper rises significantly; the current average import price is 4,100 yuan/ton, so when the domestic corrugated paper price rises to 5,600 yuan/ton, the import quantity Will be heavy volume.
The fluctuation of domestic finished paper price is limited to the price of imported finished paper. When corrugated paper is 5,000 yuan/ton and linerboard is 5,600 yuan/ton or less, the domestic market can conduct smooth price transmission because the cost of imported finished paper is still higher than that of domestic products. Finished paper prices are high. That is, the price of imported finished paper determines the price (in the absence of alternative materials).
(b) Foreign waste imports have tightened, can the national waste make up?
In the overall tightening of imported waste paper, and the steady increase in domestic demand for waste paper, the domestic demand for waste paper is squeezed into the national waste. Whether the national waste output can continue to increase or not will determine whether there will be a sharp increase in raw materials, and thus determine whether There will be paper mills shrinking profitability due to the inability to transmit raw materials and rising tons of paper. In 2016, the total amount of waste paper imports was 28.49 million tons, and in 2017 it was 25.72 million tons.
The main paper products for waste paper recycling in China are boxboard corrugated paper and white paperboard. About 20% of boxboard corrugated paper is exported to foreign countries with exports, 80% is retained domestically, white paperboard is basically retained domestically, and the rest is non-coated cultural paper; coated paper, Domestic paper, newsprint and specialty papers are poorly recyclable. Taking 2016 as an example, China's waste paper recycling volume was 49.64 million tons. China's 16-year production of boxboard and corrugated paper totaled 45.7 million tons, domestic retained amount was approximately 36.56 million tons, and white paperboard output was 14.05 million tons, removing coated paper, The production of cultural paper for household paper, newsprint and specialty paper was 27.5 million tons, assuming that the domestic packaging paper (boxboard, corrugated, whiteboard) had a recovery rate of approximately 70%, and the recoverable cultural paper recovery rate was approximately 52%.
Based on data from the 16-year papermaking association, 184.5 million tons of domestic waste paper and imported waste paper were needed in 18 years, and about 49.4 million tons of boxboard and corrugated paper were produced, about 39.5 million tons were retained in China, and the output of white paper board was about 14.42 million. t; The production of cultural paper for removal of coated paper, household paper, newsprint and specialty paper was 28,330,000 tons.
(1) Assuming that the waste paper import volume in 2018 will be reduced by 10% compared to 2017, the import volume will be 23.15 million tons in 18 years, and the national waste recycling needs will be 61.35 million tons, which will require the domestic packaging paper recycling rate to increase to 80%. Recyclable culture The paper recovery rate is about 64%.
(2) Assume that the waste paper import volume in 2018 is reduced by 20% compared to 2017, then the import volume in 20 years will be 20.58 million tons, and the national waste recycling needs to be 63.92 million tons, the domestic packaging paper recycling rate will be increased to 83%. Recyclable culture The paper recovery rate is about 68%.
Therefore, we can see that the import volume has dropped by about 10%, and it can still make up for it by increasing the recovery rate. If the import volume drops by 20%, it will basically approach the recycling limit of waste paper for each paper type, which will bring about extreme tension in raw materials.
Based on historical experience, the amount of imported waste paper fell by 10% year-on-year in 2017, and the recycling rate of packaging paper and culture paper only rose by 5% and 7%, respectively, and the national waste recycling price on the margin caused the national waste price to rise by nearly 50%. In 2018, if the import volume of waste paper drops by 20%, the recovery rate will continue to increase by 13%, which may lead to a clear increase in the price of waste paper again, affecting the operating environment of the domestic packaging paper industry.
(3) Large enterprises have obvious advantages in waste paper import and operation efficiency
Large enterprises have obvious advantages in waste paper import quotas and operating efficiency. The gross profit per ton of paper of large enterprises with waste paper import quotas is about 500 yuan/t higher than that of small firms without waste paper import quotas. Similarly, large companies with waste paper import quotas have the advantage of operating efficiency, and the profit per ton of paper is obvious.
2.3.1 The cost advantage of large enterprises with waste paper import quotas is obvious
The most important cost structure in the corrugated board industry is raw materials. The boxboard corrugated paper produced by a paper mill consumes 1.1 tons of waste paper per ton. Large enterprises with imported waste paper quotas have obvious cost advantages. According to the comparison of the two companies with different import quotas, the per-ton pulp consumption amount of company A with quotas is 0.66 tons, and the national waste amount is 0.44 tons. No quota enterprise B has no waste paper import quota, and 1.1 tons of waste paper All for the national waste. The difference in cost per ton of pulp caused by the difference between waste waste from the country's waste is 514.5 yuan.
Obviously, in the case of the depreciation of tonnage paper with quota company A and the fact that the energy cost is not dominant compared with non-quota company B, the raw material costs account for more than 70% of the industry cost system. The cost advantage can be easily offset by the cost of depreciation and energy costs.
The price difference between the same products in the industry is often very small, and the product prices of the two companies are all 4,800 yuan. After calculation, it can be obtained that if enterprise A has quotas, the gross profit per ton of paper is more than twice that of company B without quotas. Therefore, under the further tightened quota system, enterprises with large import quotas and high proportions of Chinese and foreign waste materials in the raw material cost structure will have very large advantages in gross tonnage.
2.3.2 Large enterprises also have advantages in operational efficiency
There is also a difference in profitability between companies that have the same amount of waste paper import quotas. Compared with Shanying Paper and its acquisition of Liansheng Paper, Shanying Paper, as a result of the difference in volume and operating efficiency, is a large enterprise cost. There are obvious advantages. In terms of gross profit margin, the gap between the gross profit margins of large and small paper companies has widened. In 2016, the difference between Shanying and Liansheng's gross profit margin was relatively small. In 2017, the difference in gross profit margin between the two companies significantly increased. The cost rates of the two periods are similar, and the difference in the net interest rate between Shanying and Liansheng is caused by the difference in gross profit margin. The fee rate between Shanying and Liansheng is basically the same, and the difference is within 1%. Therefore, the difference in gross profit rate directly reflects the net rate.
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